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Montagano is a savvy, if unlikely, candidate. At 27, he's never been elected to any political office and is barely out of law school. In Fort Wayne he opened the campaign's second office Tuesday, making the announcement before a bank of broadcast television cameras with Mayor Tom Henry and a slight tremble in his left hand.
But it's Mark Souder, the 14-year veteran U.S. Representative of this district, who has reason to be nervous. Indeed, Montagano's inexperience belies the perfect storm of opportunity that may yet brew here.
If there's a pickup opportunity to be had for Indiana Democrats this fall, it's here, where Souder emerged weakened in 2006 with the poorest showing of his career, edging former Fort Wayne City Councilman Tom Hayhurst 54-46%. The race became so unexpectedly close that the National Republican Congressional Committee in early October turned to D.C. pollster The Tarrance Group to reassess Souder's campaign. The results so panicked the national GOP that two weeks later it spent nearly $100,000 in television advertising attacking Hayhurst.
There's recognition from both campaigns of this year's increased stakes. In the second quarter of 2006, Hayhurst had $148,958 on hand after raising $50,403, compared to Montagano's $351,701 on hand after $142,107 raised. Souder, too, is outperforming his 2006 campaign. He has $323,339 on hand after raising $91,573, compared to the $68,358 he had on hand after raising just $64,413 in 2006. Montagano's campaign is slightly underperforming relative to Joe Donnelly's 2006 campaign, the best late-blooming analog to his campaign. The now-Congressman raised $169,017 and had $442,117 on hand this time two years ago.
Montagano nonetheless remains in an extraordinary position. He's one of twenty-two challengers nationwide to out-fundraise incumbent opposition, and one of only nine challengers to finish the quarter with more cash on hand, according to the campaign.
"First and foremost, look at where we stand as far as the money we've been able to raise," Montagano told HPI Tuesday. "We've raised over half a million dollars now, we have more cash on hand than Mark Souder. This is a hundred percent more than the money Tom Hayhurst sat on in 2006. We will have the resources to get this message out," he said.
Montagano's early performance is the result of what has surely come to consume the campaign: convincing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to prioritize the race. The national campaign arm for House Democrats raised $17 million in the second quarter, closing the period with $19 million cash on hand, compared with the dismal $2 million the National Republican Congressional Committee had on hand at the end of June.
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The vast national disparity between the DCCC and the NRCC has allowed national Democrats to target thirty-eight Republicans so far in its "Red to Blue" program, which funneled more than $20 million to fifty-six candidates in 2006. Montagano currently sits atop the organization's "Emerging Races" list, often a precursor to "Red to Blue" designation. Hayhurst was named to the same list in 2006, but much later in the year—just two weeks before the election.
"We've worked closely with the national party, which is something the Hayhurst campaign did not do in 2006, and I think that was a grave mistake. We are a DCCC Red to Blue Emerging Race; we're one of the top fifty-seven races in the country," Montagano said. "We're seeing institution support from Washington, which is something that was never seen by the Hayhurst campaign, and is crucial to the resources that we'll be able to raise to win this race."
If Montagano wins the DCCC designation, it will mean a cash infusion for his campaign of about $400,000—only slightly less than the amount Souder spent ($572,783) in all of 2006. Souder, who told Roll Call this week that he wasn't "good at dialing for dollars," hasn't had a DCCC-funded opponent since Jill Long Thompson, the congresswoman and now gubernatorial nominee whom he defeated in 1994. In 2004, his Democratic opponent had stage fright during a debate and fled the TV studio.
This year, with the NRCC's anemic fundraising and the Republican National Committee's attention and cash focused on the Presidential campaign, Souder's unlikely to get the national GOP bailout he got in 2006. In 2008 though, with supply diminished, demand is likely to be even greater: Montagano points to an April poll his campaign commissioned indicating Souder's approval and disapproval ratings were a wash. Of the 504 likely voters pollster Cooper Secrest surveyed, 46% gave Souder a positive approval rating and 46% a negative rating.
The campaign, heartened by the 2006 results, is even more optimistic this year, pointing to the sharp increase in Democratic party identification that has accompanied Barack Obama's presidential campaign and the thousands of dollars the Illinois senator continues to spend on paid advertising and staff in the state. They also point to the presence on the gubernatorial ticket of Jill Long Thompson, who represented northeastern Indiana for six years.
Montagano's staff, then, is busy laying the groundwork for a campaign that they themselves hope will lift suddenly, meteorically, with the rising Obama and Long Thompson tides. The campaign's hired five paid staffers, opened two offices in the district, and contracted a team of national consultants to advise him—Mainstreet Communications for media, the Baughman Company for direct mail, and Cooper Secrest as pollster.
"Polling is key, raising money is key, and continuing to show good press, good media, and that there's things on the ground that are moving are all key to that," Montagano said. "And we think we're at the forefront of all three of those."
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